What Awaits Syria in 2025?
Details of the Great Collapse
According to seasoned Middle East policy expert Ali Rizk, the United States and its regional allies “orchestrated” the Syrian rebel offensive that began on November 27, 2024. They capitalized on the weakness of the Syrian state, leading to the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, marking one of the defining events in the region last year.
The Regional Situation
Syria has become a “weak and fragile state” due to its long civil war, exacerbated by “recent Israeli wars in the region, especially against Hezbollah,” which forced the Lebanese party to withdraw its fighters, according to Rizk.
Clash of Interests
All external parties involved in the Syrian crisis agreed on the necessity to overthrow former President Bashar al-Assad, but Rizk warns that disagreements over what happens next could ignite new conflicts in the coming months and years.
Israel aims to “cut logistical supply lines between Iran and Hezbollah and reduce Iran’s influence in Syria.”
Turkey sees the situation as an opportunity to restore its Ottoman imperial influence and prevent the Kurds from achieving more autonomy.
The United States continues its efforts to turn Syria into a failed state by controlling energy and
food-rich areas, coordinating with Israel regarding Iran, and officially seeking to prevent the
return of ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia and several countries).
Predictions for 2025
Syria’s Disintegration on ethnic and religious lines, with ISIS exploiting the chaos, Israel annexing
more territory, and Turkey supporting its allies in conflict with the Kurds.
A “Taliban-like regime” in Syria if hardline elements within Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham manage to
impose their control, reminiscent of the UN-sanctioned regime due to its terrorist activities.
A Unified Syria under Turkish influence, at peace with Israel but hostile towards Iran.
Syrian National Dialogue Conference: No Date Set Yet
Military Discussions Between SDF Leadership and New Syrian Administration in Damascus
