Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to change the map of the Middle East, and he has been successful in his stated goal. The Middle East has been changed forever in the time period from October 7, 2023 to the end of December 2024.
US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, in the summer of 2006 in Beirut, delivered a similar promise of a ‘New Middle East’ as the US assisted and supported Israel in their attack on Hezbollah, the Lebanese resistance militia backed by Iran. Israel lost that war, and was unable to invade the south of Lebanon, or degrade the Hezbollah leadership, or military capability.
In the time period between the end of summer 2006 and October 7, 2023, Hezbollah was able to amass a huge arsenal of weapons, and recruit and train commandos. The weaponry was domestically made, or smuggled from Iran via land and air coordinated with the Assad regime in Syria and their Iranian partners. Prior to October 2023, Hezbollah was said by analysts to be on parity with Israel concerning weapons.
Netanyahu took office on December 29, 2022, and promised he would deliver two goals during his term. His first goal was to expand the Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which are seen as illegal by international law, and the second goal was to sign a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu is kept in office by a religious extremist coalition which have expanded the illegal settlements, and have supported officially sanctioned brutality directed at Palestinians living under occupation in the West Bank.
On September 22, 2023, Netanyahu declared, “I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough: an historic peace with Saudi Arabia.” Netanyahu had addressed the UN General Assembly and held up his map titled “The New Middle East.”
On October 7, 2023 Hamas, and other armed Palestinian resistance groups, carried out a large-scale attack on Israel killing and taking hostages to Gaza. In retaliation, Israel launched a huge attack on Gaza which has taken over 40,000 lives, mostly women and children, and is ongoing.
In solidarity with the Palestinians, Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8 which resulted in significant deaths and property damage inside Israel until a ceasefire went into effect on November 26, 2024.
On July 19, 2024, the International Court of Justice ruled that the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, and the Jewish settlements, were all illegal under international law. The Middle East will remain in crisis until the Palestinian people are free. With the current Netanyahu government, and the US government always subservient to Israel, hopes are dim for a peaceful Middle East, regardless of normalization treaties, or flimsy Band-Aids.
By August 9, 2024 the US Biden administration was still holding on to hope for the possibility of an Israeli-Saudi agreement, which the US President Joe Biden saw as a strategic accomplishment for his time in office, but by September 18, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated his Kingdom would not normalize relations with Israel until the Palestinian people entered into the two-state solution called for by the UN, US and the international community.
On September 17, 2024, pagers began exploding across Lebanon and Syria. Later, Netanyahu admitted he had ordered the covert operation, despite criticisms from some of his cabinet who disapproved. As a result, 39 died and 3,400 were injured. This attack took out many of the upper echelon of Hezbollah leaders and commandos. The next day a similar attack occurred among those using walkie-talkies. Netanyahu had killed or maimed many of the key actors in Hezbollah without an invasion, or firing a shot. This covert attack shook Hezbollah and its operatives to the core, and signaled the beginning of the degrading of the threat of Hezbollah.
Just 10 days later, on September 27, another death blow was delivered when Israel targeted and killed Hezbollah’s charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who had been the face of resistance since 1992. While the ideology of resistance to occupation can never be eliminated until the Palestinians have their own land, the loss of Nasrallah can never be under estimated.
On September 30, Israel began a ground invasion of Lebanon from the south. The remaining Hezbollah commandos continued to put up a fight, and the invasion was very difficult for the Israeli military. They lost many personnel, vehicles and tanks. All during this period, Israel had carried out devastating airstrikes across Lebanon, and concentrated on the southern portion of Beirut which was home to Shiites, Hezbollah operatives, and supporters. Israel successfully degraded the weapon storages and commandos on the ground. In a weakened position, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire which began on November 26 and is currently holding.
While the ceasefire agrees to plans for Israel to leave Lebanese territory, they have not, and perhaps will not in the future. Netanyahu promised the Jews living in the north of Israel they could go home and be safe, and he has delivered on that promise.
Gaza is in ruins, resembling the aftermath of a carpet-bombing campaign, and Hamas leadership are killed, while commandos and weaponry are degraded. Lebanon’s south looks similar to Gaza after the Israeli bombings, and Hezbollah is at its weakest point. With two victories under his belt, Netanyahu next turned his attention to Syria, part of the axis of resistance along with Iran, and Hezbollah. With the White House is flying on auto-pilot after the Trump election win, Netanyahu knew he must strike while the iron is hot. He could not afford to miss the historical opportunity to knock out Gaza, Hezbollah and Syria all in a trifecta.
On December 8, the Syrian dictator, President Bashar al-Assad, fled Damascus for asylum in Moscow. In less than two weeks, the Islamist armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), commanded by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani of Idlib, had taken Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus almost without a battle. With just 35,000 armed troops, HTS liberated Syria from the corrupt Assad regime. The Syrian Arab Army fell like a house of cards after an international deal was made, and implemented with multiple moving parts. Assad, his family of blood-sucking criminals, Hezbollah, and the Iranians all fled the scene in a panic. The Russians left slowly, and might be back depending on new deals pending.
Netanyahu was racking up trophy wins: Hamas destroyed, Hezbollah degraded in Lebanon, eliminated entirely in Syria, and the axis of resistance broken beyond repair. Assad and Iran would no longer be the conduit of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. From October 7, 2023 to December 8, 2024 Netanyahu had been on a mission to eliminate his enemies.
On December 10, Israel began a bombing raid across Syria, destroying military bases, weapon storages, air defense systems, military jets, and military airports. There were no known casualties to these hundreds of airstrikes because the army had collapsed and ceased to function on December 8. Now, Syria is a country without any army or defense capabilities. This is the crowning achievement of Netanyahu.
On December 15, Israel carried out a huge bombing campaign on an underground weapons storage facility in Tartus. Local residents felt the 3.0 scale earthquake which resulted from the huge amount of firepower Israel used. Nuclear emissions experts reported some alarming readings in the aftermath; however, after an investigation is was concluded that Israel had not used a ‘mini-nuke’ in carrying out the attack.
On December 17, while standing on Syrian territory near Damascus, Netanyahu declared that Israel will remain on newly occupied Syrian land, in what can only be viewed as an opportunistic land-grab. Jolani has said his transitional government will not be a threat to Israel. Finally, Israel has found a compliant partner in Damascus.
On December 23, 2024, Netanyahu was still confidant that Israel’s war in Gaza had offered opportunities to sign new peace accords with Arab nations and “dramatically change the face of” the Middle East.
With a new regime in Damascus, we may see a Syrian-Israeli normalization soon, but the prize that Netanyahu seeks, the Saudi normalization may take longer.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
