While floor prices of the NFTs have surged since March 17, the Polymarket prediction contracts relating to the former U.S. President’s indictment have become some of the most actively traded on the platform.
A set of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to former U.S. President Donald Trump have jumped over 30% in ether-denominated value over the past week amid a possible indictment and arrest of the former president.
At the time of writing, the Polygon-based Trump Digital Trading Cards were selling for over 0.59 ether (ETH), rising from last week’s 0.33 ETH level. Over 735 Trump NFTs have been sold in this period, attracting 401 ether in trading volume, according to data from NFT marketplace OpenSea.
The rally in NFT prices comes amid reports of Trump’s possible arrest. The former U.S. President is expected to be indicted in the coming days, as Fox News first reported on March 17. It is unknown what are the exact charges for the indictment as they will only be unsealed when he appears in court.
It’s believed that the charges could stem from a hush money payment made to adult actress Stormy Daniels at the height of the 2016 election, as per Fox News.
Per the New York Times reporting, prosecutors are looking at two possible charges stemming from the incident: violations of campaign finance law, and falsifying business records as it was entered into Trump’s books as a payment to his lawyer for legal services. Theoretically, this could land Trump in jail for up to four years, though lawyers say that it would be a tough case to prosecute.
The New York Times also reports that Trump could be facing multiple other charges regarding classified documents he illegally kept at Mar-a-Lago, and false statements he made about it after. There’s also a chance that there could be charges with regard to the January 6th riot at Capitol Hill.
Trump NFTs a Hit With His Supporters
Trump released the collection of 45,000 fantasy cards in December last year for $99 apiece, featuring images of him in a style similar to collectible baseball cards.
Collectors who purchase one of the digital trading cards will be automatically entered into a “sweepstakes” to receive experiences with Trump, including a zoom call, a dinner in Miami, or a cocktail hour at Mar-a-Lago, as CoinDesk previously reported.
The cards quickly sold out at the time. As of Thursday, data shows wallet 0xfb65 holds the highest individual Trump NFTs with 1,000 cards followed by 0x75d2 at 362 cards. Neither of the two entities has listed any of their NFTs for sale.
When is the Indictment?
The decision to indict, and then arrest the former President has not been finalized by the Manhattan District Attorney, though media reports – and Trump himself – have indicated that it is as a sure thing.
On Polymarket, investors have currently priced the likelihood of a Trump indictment happening by March 31 at 68%, or 68 cents. This was as high as 93% after Trump said he expected to be arrested by Tuesday (March 21).
Polymarket is a crypto betting service that allows users to pick one of at least two options on given trades, such as election results.
There’s currently $93,000 of volume, and $11,000 of liquidity, on this contract, making it one of PolyMarket’s more actively traded markets.
A contract that asks if Trump will be arrested by May 31 currently has the Yes side trading at 87%, while another contract asking if Trump will be arrested by Friday, March 24 has the No side at 85%.
Complicating the indictment and the arrest are security concerns, and authorities are taking time to prepare for possible protests, which may be why investors on Polymarket are softening to the idea of an arrest by the end of March.
If indicted, Trump would be the first U.S. President to be indicted, but would not be the first President to be arrested as Ulysses S. Grant was arrested for speeding in 1872, according to the Washington Post.
Investors on Polymarket are also pricing in a 10% chance that Trump tweets by April 1, and a 53% chance that he smiles in his mugshot.
This article was originally published by CoinDesk.
