By: Dr. Javad Masoumi Geopolitical researcher
Three years have passed since the Nagorno-Karabakh peace agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, but tensions continue in the Caucasus and the military forces of the two countries exchange fire every day. In recent weeks, the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia have accused each other of violating the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, and this issue has increased concerns about the start of a new round of conflicts. In such a situation, the consequences of the position of the authorities of the Republic of Azerbaijan will cover not only the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the entire region.
The president of Azerbaijan wants to implement his ambitions in Karabakh, in his new statements, he behaved inappropriately with Armenia. Addressing the Armenians, he said: In order for Armenia to live comfortably, it must accept our conditions and officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan. Armenia should sign a peace treaty with us and delimit the borders according to our conditions. The president of Azerbaijan, who contributes more to the instability and insecurity of the Caucasus, claimed in a message last week that peace and stability in the region is due to the actions of this country and Turkey.
Following the warnings of Azerbaijan and the military movements of this country on the common borders, Armenians are worried about the security situation in Karabakh. A few days ago, in a speech, the Prime Minister of Armenia warned against the possibility of escalation of tension by the Republic of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region as well as the joint border region and said: My conclusion is due to the increasing aggressive rhetoric of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and of course we have other information.
The Prime Minister of Armenia emphasized that Armenia is not a country that initiates aggressive or tension-provoking actions, that is why he decided to invite EU observers. In recent days, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia issued a statement citing the evaluations, and announced that the evidence indicates that Azerbaijan is preparing for a new aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian Genocide.
According to the harsh warnings of the Baku authorities and repeated violations of the ceasefire, there is a possibility of conflict in the near future, and for this reason, the Russians have repeatedly expressed concern about the failure of the ceasefire in Karabakh in the past weeks and have asked both sides to exercise restraint. . In the two full-scale wars that took place between the two countries in 1992 and 2020, tens of thousands of soldiers from both sides have been killed and injured, and the escalation of tensions can cause heavy casualties to the two neighbors.
Based on the bilateral meetings held between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow and Brussels in the past year, and regional mediators were also present in these meetings, it was expected that the level of tensions between Baku and Yerevan would subside, but the war of words at the Munich security meeting showed that disputes are beyond what can be resolved by the mediation of several countries.
Although in November 2020, based on the peace agreement with the mediation of Russia, the Republic of Azerbaijan was able to take back most of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia after three decades, but still, it is not satisfied with the new limits and loopholes in the borders and plans to continue to other areas. Add the rest to your soil. According to these agreements, Russian peacekeepers were supposed to be stationed around the Lachin Corridor in order to prevent a possible conflict between the forces of the two countries, but with the involvement of the Russians in the Ukraine war, the peacekeeping forces were also forced to leave Karabakh, and this was a good opportunity for the Azeris. to realize their ambitious policies.
In this regard, since December 2022, the forces of Baku have taken control of Lachin Corridor and by besieging the Armenian part of Nagorno-Karabakh, they have taken this area hostage and are not allowing aid to the people of this area. This crossing is the only route through which Armenia can deliver food, fuel and medical supplies to the Armenian residents of Karabagh. The region where about 120 thousand Armenians live and its control is under the control of the local government of this region since the first Karabakh war.
Baku authorities claim that it is necessary to establish a crossing and a border control point at the end of the Lachine road, but the international community considers this act as genocide, and this corridor should be opened as soon as possible. Azerbaijan does not pay attention to the international requests and in recent days it has stopped the gas transfer to the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh. The interruption of the flow of this pipeline along with the closure of Lachin has faced the Armenian population in this area with a humanitarian disaster.
The president of Azerbaijan and other officials of Baku are trying to put pressure on Armenia with this anti-human act and force this country to submit to Baku’s demands. The main demand of the Republic of Azerbaijan is the construction of the Zangezzor Corridor, which connects the territory of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region, a demand that, in addition to the Armenians, the countries of the region, including Iran and Russia, have strongly opposed this controversial plan.
The new round of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh is under the conditions that Russia is trying to re-deploy part of the peacekeeping forces in this region in order to help stabilize the region. The European Union has also sent a number of its experts to this region since a few months ago under the pretext of establishing peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but according to the requirements of the time and based on its own interests, but none of these political and military movements have been able to bring the Republic of Azerbaijan to force them to withdraw from their positions, and the president of Azerbaijan has shown that he will not settle for anything less than the construction of the Zangezor Corridor or the occupation of Armenian Karabakh (Artsakh Republic). Zangezzor Corridor, if implemented, will destroy the borders of Iran and Armenia forever, and Azerbaijan will be Iran’s only neighbor in the Caucasus.
The outcome of the developments in Karabakh shows that the Baku authorities have a serious decision to change geopolitics in the region. And on the other hand, Armenia and the countries of the region are against this action, Baku’s insistence can intensify the tensions in the South Caucasus and open the feet of other trans-regional powers to the issue, and this atmosphere of insecurity is the best opportunity for the Zionist regime, England and America to Make the area unsafe.
Dr. Javad Masoumi Geopolitical researcher
