By: Javad Masoumi, Iranian researcher and analyst
At present, the geography of Israel has witnessed extensive conflicts and the fundamental division at the macro level of this fake Israel has become more serious than in the past, to the point that various sectors and areas, including military, social, security, cultural, etc., have suffered multipolar conflicts and disputes. And in addition to the fundamental damage to Israel, the ostracism of Israel has created great opportunities for the resistance front, some of these crises include political crisis and the end of democracy, economic crisis and lack of economic development, security crisis and civil war, social crisis and reverse migration. Identity crisis, cultural crisis, which in this note, the economic category is briefly examined from the perspective of related variables, including investment, monetary value, inflation and the price market of goods and services in the field of advanced technologies.
The mentioned crises started after Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform plan and spread in a short period of less than a year; Because the Prime Minister of Israel is trying to pursue, approve and implement a plan known as judicial reforms, so that based on that, he can severely reduce the powers of the judicial institutions and establish a dictatorship, and on the other hand, if he does not follow through on the mentioned plan, he will be severely pressured. Extreme coalitions will be faced and with the resignation of one of the parties, the cabinet will fall and Netanyahu will no longer be the prime minister and will go to prison due to the crimes committed. In other words, basically, the current cabinet has brought Netanyahu to power with the precondition of far-right parties with the aim of approving and implementing the law of the judicial reform plan of Netanyahu, therefore, considering the chaotic domestic situation, the prediction of more serious crises is not far from expected and will cause more problems for them, and these crises in Various macro-level dimensions have left their mark on Israel, one of which is the collapse of Israel’s economy in the short and medium term.
What is certain is that the biggest component of economy and investment is security, and currently Israel lacks stable security, and on the other hand, other important investment factors such as inflation rate, growth rate, political landscape, price of raw materials, energy, population, consumer culture, location Geography, global markets, monetary and financial stability, flexibility in taxes, environmental policies, political, economic and military security are all relatively challenged. Among these factors, the coefficient of political, security and military importance is higher than other factors, which after the judicial reforms with the aim of increasing power, influence and control over the elections, which means the key to restraining the Israeli court, the political, security and military variables of this Israel have faced a serious challenge. Is. In other words, the Prime Minister of Israel is seeking to reduce the authority and independence of the Court for himself, and on the other hand, the Israeli society is strongly against it and this process has directly affected the economy and domestic and foreign investment of Israel.
Since nearly 40% of Israel’s GDP is dependent on advanced technology sectors, or in other words, advanced technologies form the main productive axis of Israel’s economy, to the point where more than 50% of exports are directly dependent on this advanced technology sector, and more than 25% of Israel’s taxes It is also received from advanced technology companies.
Examining the data and economic tables of Israel shows that currently a significant percentage of the profits of start-up or growing companies in Israel’s technology sector has seriously decreased. That is, we are currently witnessing a serious decrease in investment in half of Israel’s economy (advanced technologies) and according to the reports of the Central Bank of Israel, the amount of investment in the first half of this year has decreased significantly and reached the level of 3.7 billion dollars, which The rate of global recession is at its lowest and lowest rate since 2018.
What is important is that following the economic policies of Israel from the United States of America has led to their matching economic model and therefore the processes of recession or economic collapse will bring similar results; Therefore, we can conclude that with the bankruptcy of American banks despite the application of financial contraction policies and also the loss of jobs of American companies related to advanced technologies; Bankruptcy economic crisis in Israel is not far from expected in the short and medium term, as in America, and with the continuation of widespread insecurity and vandalism, which is considered a form of civil war, the direct pressure on the economy sector and the exit of investors will increase several times. Just like America, companies and businesses related to technology in Israel will suffer more serious losses and will go bankrupt one after the other.
The analysis of the Israeli stock market also shows that in the first half of this year, this market did not grow much and it decreased by 10% compared to last year, and with the global recession, the growth of this index has become negative, this negative variable in the charts of the commodity market And the service represents the withdrawal of capital from the Israeli stock market, fake Israel. This is if, according to Israel’s management plan, the gross product should grow by 2.5% this year and 3% in the next year; But with the problems of the extreme cabinet and internal tensions and crises resulting from disputes, as well as according to the opinion of Israel’s own economic experts, it will not be more than 1% this year and 1.5% next year. It will decrease by 50% next year compared to this year.
The next issue, which is one of the most important factors, is that the data and statistical tables show that before the current extreme cabinet took office, Israel’s inflation rate was 2.4%, which is considered to be a good attraction for companies to invest in, especially the advanced technology sector. you turn Because the stability of the inflation component allowed capitalists to plan carefully for the future, but currently in Israel, which is facing various tensions and crises in the occupied territories, and with the departure of investors, inflation has set a new record in the medium term and will be recorded in the long term, and the value of the Israeli currency compared to the US dollar has significantly decreased since the presentation of the judicial terminology plan in the Israeli parliament, and this decrease in monetary value continues; But it is also necessary to state that part of this variable is the decline in the value of the Israeli currency as a result of the global recession; However, as tensions flare up, this amount of currency depreciation will increase much more, and even according to the opinion of sociologists, it has a direct impact on other categories, including reverse migration, in other words, if the crises and internal conflicts continue, the Israeli economy will become much more fragile than before, and finally, the economic pillars Israel will collapse.
The question that is raised is how far the plan to create a dictatorial system of this fake Israel will go, and the basic debate is whether Benjamin Netanyahu will stop the project of judicial terms with the pressure of different societies, especially America? The answer is that the probability of stopping this plan is very weak; Because the extremist cabinet has promoted Netanyahu to the position of prime minister with this plan as a precondition, and if the plan is not followed, the parties will face resignations and the fall of the cabinet is a serious and probable matter; Therefore, it seems that the project of judicial terms will be pursued with more intensity, and on the other hand, this project will lead to the stubborn opposition of the Israeli society to various sabotages and even the possibility of civil war, which will accelerate the outflow of capital from the occupied territories. Currently, Israel’s official announcement data and tables also show the signs of Israel’s economic collapse in the short and medium term, and the global economic recession in Europe and America will fuel this collapse and accelerate it.
Meanwhile, the approach of the United States of America is important; Because America is looking for a policy of soft pressure mechanism to prevent the collapse and complete removal of Israel from the scene as its strategic ally and believes that Israel is on the verge of collapse; Therefore, America is trying to put soft pressure on this cabinet with the playing card of reducing its financial aid to Israel, and on the other hand, Israel is also trying to provide financial support with the playing card of China to prevent economic collapse so that they can receive the financial support of the Americans, which is a significant figure. do not miss; But what is certain is that Israel also knows that the United States of America is no longer the hegemon and does not have the necessary power to support the ostracized Israel, and as a result, Israel is looking for an alternative in the new order instead of the United States to support itself.
Summarizing that Israel is surrounded by resistance and geopolitical tensions and is facing serious political, economic, security, civil war, social, reverse migration, identity, cultural, etc. crises inside, and as a result, different internal currents split every day. It is expanding and the crisis of economic collapse in question will have a direct effect on other crises, and the combination of all these factors will create good opportunities to erase the temporary Zionist ostracized Israel from the scene of the times
