The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that global energy demand will increase by 24% by 2050, driven by economic growth and population expansion. Despite the rise of renewable energy sources, OPEC emphasizes that oil and gas will remain central to ensuring global energy security.
According to OPEC’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released in Brazil on Tuesday, global energy demand is projected to grow from 301 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2023 to 374 mboe/d by 2050. This growth is expected to occur alongside a robust global economic expansion, averaging 2.9% annually over the same period.
The report highlights that developing regions, particularly non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, will be the primary drivers of this energy demand growth, with an expected increase of 73.5 mboe/d between 2023 and 2050.
Notably, India alone is forecasted to contribute nearly 30% of the energy demand growth from non-OECD countries. While OECD countries will see a slight decline in their contribution to energy demand growth, non-OECD nations are expected to increase their share by around 7% by 2050.
Demand for Energy Sources
OPEC’s report indicates that, with the exception of coal, demand for all major fuel types is expected to rise. Renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, are forecasted to see the largest absolute growth, increasing from 9.6 mboe/d in 2023 to 52.4 mboe/d by 2050—a growth of approximately 43 mboe/d.
Natural gas is expected to see the second-largest increase, with demand rising by about 20.5 mboe/d through 2050. Oil demand is also projected to grow significantly, with an increase of roughly 16.7 mboe/d.
Nuclear energy, biomass, and hydropower are also expected to contribute to the overall increase in energy demand. Nuclear energy is projected to grow by 9.6 mboe/d, biomass by 8.2 mboe/d, and hydropower by 4 mboe/d between 2023 and 2050.
However, due to stringent energy policies in many regions, coal demand is expected to decline by about 29 mboe/d during the same period.
Fossil Fuels and Investment Needs
The report underscores that oil and gas will continue to play a crucial role in global energy security, with fossil fuels anticipated to make up more than 50% of the global energy mix by 2050. This suggests a strong, ongoing role for oil and gas in the future energy landscape.
To meet this demand, the oil sector alone will require substantial investments, estimated at $17.4 trillion by 2050.
OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will reach 112.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2029, representing a significant increase of 10.1 mbpd compared to 2023. In the long term, oil demand is expected to rise to approximately 120.1 mbpd by 2050.
Additionally, the report anticipates that global GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% from 2023 to 2050, with the global economy projected to double in size from $165 trillion in 2023 to $358 trillion by 2050.
