Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
“From our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a radio interview aired on Saturday, according to the Guardian.
Zelenskyy admitted the situation on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine was dire as Russia made strategic advances. He added that the war will “end sooner” than it otherwise would have after president-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
On Friday, Zelenskyy spoke by phone with Trump, and said, “I didn’t hear anything that goes against our position.” Trump said in Florida after the call, “We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s got to stop.”
Zelenskyy was upset by German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call with Putin, characterizing the call as playing into Putin’s hand. The Scholz call to Putin demonstrates the emerging cracks in the wall of the EU, as not everyone in Europe has supported the Biden-NATO aggression aimed at Russia.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Arnaud Develay, a lawyer specializing in criminal international law, and is the author of Foreign Entanglements: Biden, Ukraine and the Fracturing of the American Political Consensus (2024, Clarity Press).
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): The American people recently elected Donald Trump as president, but he won’t take office until January 20. Trump has said that he will stop the conflict in Ukraine even before he takes office. In your opinion, what could be Trump’s plan to end the war?
Arnaud Develay (AD): Trump has indeed expressed his desire to see the Ukraine conflict brought to an end (an end to violence). There’s however a major difference between formulating campaign slogans and putting into application a formula which can be deemed to satisfy all parties to the conflict. As of this writing, Russia’s position is clear: The Special Military Operation will continue until Ukraine is de-Nazified and de-militarized. This implies that the foremost concerns of the Russian Federation bear on securing security guarantees that NATO will not threaten it on its Western borders. It also implies that the liberated, and now parts of Russia, former regions on the east of Ukraine are to be made secured from Western-sponsored aggression. To date, rumors emanating from Washington seem to refer to a freezing of the conflict with a demilitarized zone set up between Russian troops and European service-members. Some of these rumors also suggest that in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO for any period of time between 10 and 20 years, the West would be able to keep arming Kiev. Obviously, this is a non-starter for Russia for these merely postpone the resumption of hostilities to a not-so-distant future. Russia will thus have to take matters in its own hands and if need be take control of the whole of Ukraine.
2. SS: According to media reports, the Russian army has been making important gains on the battlefield. In your view, what is the military situation in Ukraine now?
AD: On the ground, the Russian military is advancing all along the front, registering territorial gains every single day and methodically obliterating Ukraine’s ability to mount any significant operations. Settlements are increasingly not even being defended as UAF are simply retreating to a defensive position in the face of Russian advances. Russia for its part is aiming to capture the logistical hub of Prokrovsk which in turn would lead to the liberating of major urban centers such as Kramatorsk and Kupiansk without having to fire a single shot. At some point in the not so-distant future, we could witness the total collapse of the front followed by a general offensive aimed at removing the terrorist regime sitting in Kiev.
3. SS: After the Trump election victory, the European countries are beginning to shift their positions on their support of Ukraine. In your opinion, which countries will support an end to the war?
AD: The European position is not unified as it relates to Ukraine in a post-Trump victory. Some like France and Britain have expressed their desire to keep arming Ukraine, and currently seek to secure Biden’s authorization to send long-range missiles to Zelensky. Germany’s Olaf Sholtz has thus far refrained from delivering ATACMS Taurus long-range ballistic systems to Kiev (the use of which is a red line to Moscow), but as early German parliamentary elections are set to be held in March, there are opposition German politicians seemingly willing to favor escalation. In Brussels, EU Commissioner Ursula Van der Leyen is a hard-core Kiev supporter who favors the thieving of Russian assets (300 Billion dollars) to keep financing the war. Finally, European countries such as Hungary and Slovakia are in favor of negotiating a settlement which would put an end to the war and allow trade to resume with Moscow. These countries are a minority and Viktor ORBAN’s efforts as rotating President of the European Council has failed to sway the tide.
4. SS: President Putin has a good relationship with Iran, and has had a good relationship with President Trump. In your opinion, can Putin serve as a mediator between Trump and Iran?
AD: Vladimir PUTIN is always predisposed to promote diplomacy in order to avoid conflicts. His ability to mediate between Washington and Tehran is however not likely to be an easy task. Some hawks in Washington (including if not specifically in the incoming TRUMP administration) simply want Iran to abandon its defense capabilities and its support for the Palestinian cause. That’s a non-starter. It is thus of paramount importance that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict be tackled in the context of an international conference which would include all regional powers, but also the UN, the EU, Russia and America (the now dissolved Quartet). Short of a desire to get to the root of the instability in West Asia (Israeli policies of apartheid and regional aggression), the prospect for peace are dim to say the least.
5. SS: The Biden administration put heavy sanctions on Russia. In your opinion, will President Trump continue those sanctions?
AD: It bears remembering that it was under the Trump administration that the largest amount of sanctions was imposed upon Russia. Biden merely continued the policy initiated following the coup d’état of the Maidan in 2014. I would surmise that in the context of peace-building atmosphere and confidence-building measures, it is likely that some of the sanctions (over 20,000 as of this writing) are likely to be lifted. Keep in mind that Trump strategists are seeking to decouple Russia from China. This is the policy pursued these last 30 years in Washington: sometimes favoring Beijing, sometimes favoring Moscow, with the net result that the two Eurasian powers are now closer than ever.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist
