Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his cabinet, “A new era has begun in Syria… Turkey has shown what kind of will it has to protect its survival and security. If it comes to that again, ‘we may come suddenly one night’. The circle is narrowing for the separatist organization and its extensions in Syria. As the government and the alliance, we will achieve our goal of a terror-free Turkey, one way or another. Of course, we hope this will happen safely. If this road is blocked and dynamited, then we will not hesitate to strike with the iron fist of the state wrapped in velvet gloves.”
Erdogan wants to eliminate the SDF, the armed wing of the semi-autonomous Kurdish administration in Syria. Ankara views the US- supported SDF as terrorists with links to the PKK, who have killed 30,000 over decades of terrorism. Now that Erdogan has a willing partner in Damascus, Ahmed Sharaa, the commander of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Erdogan sees a window of opportunity to eliminate the threat of the SDF while using HTS as a proven fighting force.
Erdogan has promised his people that he will return millions of Syrian refugees amid a growing public resentment. However, many Syrians have been living in Turkey for more than a decade and have become accustomed to civil, minority, and women’s rights in the secular nation. With news reports of the new Sharaa administration using Islamic law as the civil code, and a history of oppression of women in Idlib under HTS, Syrians are reluctant to go home to a country without democracy, after experiencing the highly developed secular democracy in Turkey.
Initially, the Syrian community abroad have been overjoyed that the corrupt dictator, Bashar al-Assad, was driven from power by HTS on December 8, but now many are wondering how can they go home to a country without adequate electricity, schools and hospitals? Many are saying they will wait a few years to see if the infrastructure can be repaired, and if a secular democratically elected government can be formed.
Experts worry that if Syrians don’t go home from Turkey, the Turkish citizens may say “Syria is safe. Why don’t you return?”
For many years, the Turkish locals have turned violent against the Syrian refugees, who they view as taking away jobs from locals, and causing a negative effect on the economy by draining away benefits for refugees.
Additionally, there is racial strife between Turks and Arabs, and the locals blame Syrians for changes to their society. Turkish authorities have removed Arabic from shop signs aimed at tamping down the simmering anger.
“The Syrians you have in Turkey are mostly women and children. So it has to be a government and administration friendly to women and children, specifically women,” says analyst Sezin Oney of the independent Turkish news portal Medyascope.
“But we don’t know with these, Islamist, jihadist groups. Will they be really friendly towards these other groups? So I don’t see the return of the Syrians who are in Turkey, really,” added Oney.
Steven Sahiounie interviewed Umur Tugay Yücel, author of Amerikan Gücünün Gerilemesi ve Yükselen Güçler, Turkish edition. The title translated into English is ‘Decline of American Power and Rising Powers.’
#1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): President Erdogan of Turkey played a big role in the Syrian opposition, which won the war, and ousted the Assad regime on December 8. In your opinion, what does President Erdogan want from Syria?
Umur Tugay Yücel (UTY): There is only one thing that Mr. Erdoğan and Turkey want in Syria. That is peace, stability, tranquility and security. Because the instability and fragmentation in Syria is pregnant with big problems for both Turkey and the region. As a matter of fact, unrest in your neighbor always spreads to you. Moreover, Turkey, which hosts the largest number of refugees in the world and is home to the largest number of Syrians, has no other hidden agenda. Ankara’s priority is to clear its borders and beyond its borders from terrorism, the integrity and peace of Syria and the safe return of Syrian refugees to their homes.
#2. SS: Qatar and Turkey are working together in Syria. In your point of view, will they coordinate with other Arab and regional countries concerning the future of Syria?
UTY: It is in Syria’s interest for Turkey to work with an Arab actor like Qatar. Of course, we should not forget the other important Arab players in the region, namely Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. The new Syrian government has already made its first visit to Saudi Arabia. Inevitably, Turkey needs to cooperate with other Arab countries. This is a contribution to the stability of the region. Also, coordinating with the countries in the region means that things will move faster and easier for Turkey in the region and in Syria.
#3. SS: Reports say that the ouster of Assad was a deal between Turkey and Russia; however, other reports claim that Turkey betrayed Russia in Syria. In your opinion, what really happened in Syria?
UTY: I would like to say that there does not have to be an agreement or betrayal. I find it problematic to interpret it in black and white because there is an ongoing struggle. After all, the opposition was not destroyed by Assad and his supporters. It was there and it was known that one day the opposition would mobilize again. In the Syrian arena, Turkey would certainly show its power and influence to shape events. This was inevitable. We know that Russia and Iran had warned Assad before. Russia even tried very hard to get Assad to sit at the table with Turkey. But Assad had other problems. Instead of building the country economically, militarily and socially, he was trying to reduce Russian and Iranian influence. Of course, with external influences such as Israel’s attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah, the priorities in the region have changed and we have reached today.
#4. SS: President Trump will be in office soon. In your opinion, what will the relationship between President Erdogan and Trump look like?
UTY: Trump’s inauguration means more uncertainties and problems for the whole world. We are talking about an American president who wants the territory of his closest allies. That is why Erdogan-Trump relations may be volatile. Mr. Erdoğan has worked with Trump before and knows his style. The important thing is to increase the areas of compromise and reduce the problems. Because of the US, a lot of problems have accumulated between the two countries over the years. However, when describing Mr. Trump, we can still call him a big question mark.
#5. SS: Turkey is offering to host peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. In your opinion, does Turkey have a chance to broker a peace deal?
UTY: Turkey was the closest country to signing a peace treaty in the Russia-Ukraine war. Turkey has the chance to broker a peace deal again and has the necessary references. However, there may be a Trump effect. If Trump ends this war, he will score a very big point for himself. You know it was one of his biggest promises before the election. Nevertheless, Turkey is one of the important countries that can play a facilitating role for a peace agreement.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
The opinions of Mr. Yucel do not represent those of MidEastDiscourse.
