How Russia Will Regain Influence in Syria
Sergey Lipidev, a lecturer at the Russian Government’s Financial University, writes in “Vzglyad”:
The foundation of Russia’s cooperation with Syria’s new authorities lies in the development of these authorities into a civilized government that abandons extremist views and adheres to the rule of law in decision-making. If this condition is met, the opportunities for diplomatic maneuvering become open.
Despite clear initiatives from several Western countries, the new Syrian government, closely associated with Islamic extremism, requires significant diplomatic support. This opens the field for building mutually beneficial relationships, allowing Russia to maintain its bases while enabling the new Syrian government to gain the necessary international legitimacy, potentially removing it from international blacklists.
Damascus needs no less than legitimacy and resources for the country’s reconstruction.
It appears that the Syrian authorities are considering attracting Russian expertise and also need fuel and raw materials. For the Kremlin, this option would be the easiest, as it would allow spending the least amount of hard currency.
There’s also a simple option in waiving Damascus’s financial obligations. According to the World Bank, Russia’s debt is about 15% of Syria’s total debt. It seems that waiving this debt would be more beneficial than trying to collect it.
Another often overlooked point is that every government strives for at least partial independence. One can talk as much as they want about the new Syrian leadership being an agent of Turkey, but it is unlikely that Damascus would reject reducing its dependence on Ankara. To do so, it needs the maximum possible number of resource-rich foreign partners.
