Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
On Friday, PKK leaders burned their weapons in a cave in northern Iraq.
“We voluntarily destroy our weapons, in your presence, as a step of goodwill and determination,” said Bese Hozat.
The conflict has taken 30,000 lives over 30-years. The group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called for disarmament in May, and said in a video earlier this week, that the move to disarm was a “voluntary transition from the phase of armed conflict to the phase of democratic politics and law”.
“Today is a new day; a new page has opened in history. Today, the doors of a great, powerful Turkiye have been flung wide open,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The end to a regional conflict, affecting Turkey, Iraq and Syria, has huge implications and may usher in a period of calm at a time of great turmoil in the Middle East.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Hany Elgamal, a researcher in regional and international affairs, and adviser to the Arab Centre for Political Research and Studies.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): What are the implications of Abdullah Öcalan’s recent call for the PKK to dissolve? How are different political factions in Turkey and Kurdish groups interpreting this move, and what does it signal for the future of armed resistance?
Hany Elgamal (HE): I believe Abdullah Öcalan’s historic decision to renounce armed struggle by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) contributes significantly to ending the mutual violence between the party and Turkey, which has lasted for four consecutive decades. This conflict has profoundly shaped the Turkish state’s identity and its perception of threats, influencing domestic and foreign policy more than any other issue. A permanent peace will have far-reaching consequences. The new peace process is unique in that it involves no external elements or third parties. It will shift from a military issue to a civil one, aiming to reintegrate these militias into Turkish society—a process that will take considerable time due to the need to change the fighters’ ideology and for Turkish society to accept them as part of its social fabric.
There is political hesitation in Turkish circles regarding this step, especially since these armed groups have blood on their hands and were among the reasons Turkey was denied EU membership. On the other hand, Kurdish political circles welcome this move as it represents the first international recognition of their legitimacy and opens the door for integration into Turkish society.
2. SS: How is President Erdoğan leveraging the peace initiative politically? Is the renewed dialogue with Kurdish actors’ part of a broader strategy to secure constitutional reform or extend his presidency?
HE: Erdoğan: From my perspective, the Turkish president is the biggest beneficiary of this step for several reasons. He has achieved a victory over the armed group and has drawn closer to Kurdish-oriented parties, which may support his re-election and constitutional amendments allowing him to extend his rule. This move also enables him to reshape Turkey’s geopolitical alignment in the Middle East, repositioning the Turkish military in countries like Syria and Iraq, and potentially Iran. He may promote this personal victory as a revival of the Ottoman caliphate, launching a new Erdoğan centennial no less significant than Atatürk’s.
3. SS: What role is the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) playing in shaping the peace process? Considering Devlet Bahçeli’s surprising support for Öcalan’s parliamentary address, how has nationalist rhetoric evolved in this context?
HE: The peace plan led by Devlet Bahçeli of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with support from President Erdoğan, may be driven by a desire to reorganize Turkey’s “internal front.” Peace with the PKK could provide the populist momentum needed for constitutional amendments enabling Erdoğan to seek a fourth term in 2028.
While this move addresses multiple domestic issues, any peace agreement between Ankara and the PKK would mark a fundamental shift in Kurdish relations. If the initiative to engage the PKK had come solely from Erdoğan without Bahçeli’s involvement—who has long opposed any non-military solution and was the architect of the political landscape that troubled Turkey for decades—the nationalist opposition would have been far more intense.
Bahçeli’s invitation for Öcalan to speak before parliament and his call for the “right to hope”—a measure supporting the release of individuals who have served 25 years in prison, including Öcalan—along with dialogue with officials from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), whom he previously labeled “terrorists,” helped the government preemptively contain any hardline resistance. This made the transition more politically sustainable and positively influenced the rhetoric of both Erdoğan and Öcalan, shifting the government toward Turkish nationalism and attracting a new generation of Kurdish voters.
4. SS: What are the key demands from Kurdish political actors in exchange for disarmament? Are there concrete steps being proposed around cultural rights, political participation, or legal reforms?
HE: In my view, Kurdish actors’ demands revolve around the release of Abdullah Öcalan from İmralı prison, the pursuit of autonomy in certain geographic regions, a general amnesty for PKK fighters, and immunity from war crimes prosecution. They also seek to transform into a political party participating in parliamentary life, official recognition of the Kurdish language as a second language, and acknowledgment of the Kurds as a legitimate entity entitled to benefit from the natural resources under their control. This would elevate their status within their geographic boundaries and preserve their cultural and humanitarian heritage from extinction.
This is effectively demonstrated through the autonomous administration experience in North and East Syria, which serves as a model for democratic transformation and peaceful coexistence among different ethnicities under the banner of freedom, democratic society, and shared governance. It also highlights the role of Kurdish women and their unique capabilities in building a Kurdish society that positively impacts both Ankara and Damascus.
5. SS: How might regional dynamics—especially in Syria and Iraq—affect the success of this peace initiative? Could Turkey’s stance toward Kurdish groups in neighboring countries shift if the PKK formally disbands?
HE: This peace initiative will have a broad impact on the dynamics of neighboring countries with significant Kurdish populations—Syria, Iraq, and potentially Iran. These countries have suffered from Turkish military strikes and violations of sovereignty, including assassinations and water-related pressure tactics aimed at weakening Kurdish positions and obstructing international efforts to document crimes that could place Turkey under legal scrutiny for human rights violations.
A de-escalation is expected, with Iraq likely being the starting point for PKK disarmament, particularly in Sulaymaniyah. This would usher in a new phase of calm with Turkey and efforts to integrate these armed groups into national armies or political parties. In Syria, this could involve incorporating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian army as part of transitional arrangements for drafting a new constitution. Iranian Kurds may migrate to Iraq or Syria following accusations against them after the Israeli-American attack on Iran.
Turkey will likely move to align its stance on Kurdish issues in neighboring countries with its judicial rulings—either through amnesty or punishment. This will shape Turkey’s approach to leveraging Kurdish support for constitutional changes or, at the very least, securing control over Kurdish natural resources, especially oil, to bolster its relations with major powers like Russia, the U.S., and Israel.
I see these rapid developments as part of America’s strategy to create a new Middle East, where various political projects compete using new tools.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
Hani Elgamal, Egyptian researcher in regional and international affairs
