Beirut walks a political tightrope without a safety net

Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Lebanon’s government is scheduled to convene on August 5 to deliberate the highly sensitive issue of exclusive state control over arms. The session has sparked speculation regarding potential absence or boycotts by Hezbollah-aligned ministers, including Labor Minister Mohammad Haidar and Finance Minister Yassine Jaber. This follows remarks by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, firmly rejecting the party’s disarmament.
The debate unfolds against the backdrop of persistent Israeli occupation of five strategic points along the southern border and recurrent attacks on Hezbollah’s personnel and infrastructure. The unresolved equation of “withdrawal versus disarmament” remains mired in conflicting interpretations of the November 27 ceasefire agreement. U.S. mediation—led by Amos Hochstein, Morgan Ortagus, and recently Tom Barrack—has reached a critical juncture, with Washington threatening to suspend its efforts unless tangible progress is achieved.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported four casualties following Israeli airstrikes on southern and Beqaa regions. Army Commander General Rodolphe Heikal reiterated that Israeli occupation impedes the full deployment of Lebanese forces, despite robust cooperation with UNIFIL and local community support.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam emphasized that Lebanon’s stability hinges on unifying the military’s role and consolidating weapons under state control, in line with the Taif Agreement and the government’s ministerial declaration. France’s embassy echoed this sentiment, reaffirming its support for the Lebanese Armed Forces to assume exclusive armament responsibility across all territories.
Israel’s Defense Ministry confirmed targeting Hezbollah’s precision missile production site. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have expressed dissatisfaction with the Lebanese government’s sluggish disarmament efforts, warning of potential escalation.
General Heikal outlined priorities for border security and internal stability, including counterterrorism efforts and coordination with Syrian authorities. The Lebanese army remains on high alert, closely monitoring extremist group activities and maintaining crisis readiness despite growing threats.
Reliable sources suggest that Tuesday’s government session will proceed with full sectarian representation. Observers anticipate that the cabinet will approve a framework to enforce weapons exclusivity and delegate implementation to the Higher Defense Council, potentially with General Heikal attending to present the army’s execution plan.
Hezbollah has reportedly initiated dialogue with the presidency and military leadership ahead of the session. The party, significantly weakened by recent clashes with Israel, has seen substantial losses in leadership and infrastructure. Nevertheless, it views the disarmament push as a threat to national defense, alleging U.S. bias toward Israeli interests and warning of existential risks.
Economic officials have highlighted Lebanon’s fragile reliance on imports—covering 86% of food needs—and reassured the public of a strategic stockpile sufficient for four months, contingent on open borders and functioning ports. Emergency provisions also include fuel, gas, and flour reserves, and authorities report a notable absence of panic during past crises.
On January 3, 2025, US President Donald Trump appointed Morgan Ortagus as Deputy Special Envoy for Peace in the Middle East. She had worked closely with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner during Trump’s first term in office, and had become an enthusiastic convert to the Jewish religion.
However, on her visits to Lebanon she was reported to have clashed with Lebanese Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal, and President Joseph Aoun had told American authorities he was dissatisfied with Ortagus’ style and undiplomatic communications with Lebanese officials.
Ortagus finally took aim at Lebanese politicians, and insulted ex-MP Walid Jumblatt directly. She was later reassigned away from Lebanon.
Israeli media bemoaned the departure of Ortagus, who they perceived as a staunch supporter of Israel.
Tom Barrack, an American of Lebanese ancestry, was appointed successor to Ortagus, while holding down the roles of U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and U.S. special envoy for Syria. He became accused of making contradictory statements regarding Hezbollah and the sensitive issue of the group’s weapons.
He has apparently been relieved of the Lebanese file, since his twitter account now says: U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria.
In July, Barrack visited Lebanon twice, meeting with President Joseph Aoun, and then with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
During his first trip, he received Lebanon’s response to an American proposal aimed at restoring stability in southern Lebanon and including the disarmament of Hezbollah.
The U.S. “roadmap” focuses on coordinating Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarming Hezbollah.
The goal of the plan envisions weapons to be held by the Lebanese Army, Internal Security Forces, General Security, State Security, Customs, and Municipal Police, which was stipulated in the cease-fire agreement.
“We will renounce neither our faith nor our strength. We are ready to confront the enemy. There will be no surrender and no capitulation to Israel, and Israel will not receive our weapons,” said Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem.
Israeli Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, sees the chance for Israeli expansion beyond Gaza and the West Bank. He advocates including parts of Lebanon and Syria currently under Israeli occupation.
“Today I can tell you in the clearest possible way that the IDF isn’t withdrawing – and with God’s help, won’t withdraw – from the five positions where we are present in Lebanon,” Smotrich said excitedly at this week’s “Strengthening the North” conference. “The Shi’ite villages that were destroyed won’t be rebuilt. We promised this back when we signed the [cease-fire] deal, and it was hard for many people to believe. But we’re doing it.”
Smotrich is one of the key elected officials which keep Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power, and out of jail.
The land-grab Smotrich calls for is in direct opposition to the cease-fire and the Trump “road map” for Lebanon, which hinges on an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese soil.
Lebanon had demanded guarantees from Washington that Israel will leave, and stop attacks.
However, Barrack told Beirut that he could not guarantee anything, and the U.S. could not force Israel in any action. Many critics have said that Tel Aviv gives orders to the Oval office, and Barrack’s comments in Beirut support that assertion.
Before leaving Lebanon, Barrack threatened Beirut that the U.S. might walk away from Lebanon, which would impact their ability to recover from the worst financial crisis in modern history.
The Israeli occupation gives Hezbollah a bargaining chip in its talks with the Lebanese government. The organization says that as long as the IDF is attacking Lebanon and occupying territory, it won’t disarm.
Lebanese officials are faced with two disastrous alternatives. Firstly, they could begin to disarm Hezbollah forcibly, and risk sparking a civil war, or secondly, they could allow Israel, with full U.S. backing, to resume the war with Hezbollah. In both cases, disarming Hezbollah is not guaranteed, but years of death and destruction certainly would be.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.