Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The events in Gaza and Israel have captured the world’s attention. With so many factors and moving parts to the situation, it is necessary to take a step back and look at the whole scene. Dr. Ahmad Alderzi, the noted microbiologist and activist, has been interviewed by Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse, and his sweeping assessment is enlightening and thought provoking.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): Many people have wondered if Hezbollah will open a war front against Israel in response to the situation in Gaza since October 7. In your opinion, will the war expand, or will it remain contained?
Ahmad Alderzi (AA): Hezbollah looks at the issue of expanding the war from multiple concerns and it has prepared itself for such a situation since the end of July 2006 war. There are various factors in Hezbollah’s view of expanding the war, which make it measure the extent of its intervention in the war with a golden scale.
A. The Palestinian factor: There is great concern for the achievement to be completely Palestinian, which makes its cause return to the centrality of global issues, which in turn puts the resistance forces in the strongest position to achieve their conditions.
B. The Lebanese factor: This factor has played a fundamental role before the martyrdom of Abbas Raad, the son of the head of the largest parliamentary bloc in Parliament, due to the chronic political division between the Lebanese forces, and the fear of the section of the Lebanese environment incubating the resistance of the consequences of the war, which would be disastrous for the Lebanese and the “Israeli” interior. This factor may have changed after the martyrdom and after the anti-war forces realized that the war in Gaza and the West Bank is leading to defeat for the Israelis.
C. The regional factor: This factor is mainly related to the exhausted Syrian front, which is the weak point of the resistance axis. There is a real fear that Israeli and American aviation will intervene to open military roads for the expansion of military groups in the north, south and east, towards central Syria and the Syrian capital.
D. The Iranian factor: There is a perception among Iranians that the expansion of the war may get out of control, which pushes things towards more than regional war, and the widespread destruction of infrastructure that accompanies this war, in light of the harsh sanctions imposed on it, and the internal political division. With a mainstream that views the relationship with the West as an only option for a comfortable life.
E. The fifth factor is the American and Western position in general: which seeks to prevent the expansion of the war and control it within the Palestinian interior to give the Israeli army the opportunity to eliminate Hamas movement, and this is what did not happen.
Therefore, Hezbollah continued to raise the level of its military resistance against Israel, in a way that serves the Palestinian cause within the two conditions that Nasrallah have set ; namely the survival of Hamas movement and a ceasefire. However, this is what we began to notice with the last developments in the war and the truce that everyone agreed to extend
2. SS: Hamas and Israel have been exchanging Israeli hostages in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners in Israel. How do you view this development?
Ahmad Alderzi (AA): This deal, which was concluded, represents the first step in announcing the reality on the ground for both Israel and Hamas movement, and this comes after Israel set high goals which are eradicating the Hamas movement and displacing the people of Gaza to Sinai. But, it failed to achieve both matters, that’s what puts Israel in a position of defeat, and it must acknowledge this; acknowledge the victory of the Hamas movement, and go towards accepting the requests of the victorious party, by starting the process of releasing prisoners and those kidnapped by both parties.
3. SS: The pause has lasted days, was extended, and is now coming to a possible end unless an extension is agreed upon. Will the battles resume afterwards?
Ahmad Alderzi (AA): The truce has begun in practice, and has expanded in time. Because all parties have reached a complete conviction that the Israeli army has not been able to achieve an actual achievement in the field war, and also has suffered enormous losses in a way that the Israeli society cannot bear.
Despite the Israeli army’s efforts to continue the war to restore its shattered image, in addition to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s insistence on the war continuation, to prevent himself from paying heavy prices as a result of his exit from political life after this war. But, the military and field reality, the continued losses of the Israeli army, and the resuming of the Israeli massacres against the Palestinians, all of these will make every day of the continuation of the war mean more accumulation of defeat, not only for Israel, but also for the entire dominant Western regime, and will help accelerate the emergence of a new international order of forces that oppose the policy of the United States.
4. SS: Resistance fighters in the far eastern desert region of Syria have attacked the American military bases that they had illegally occupied. In your opinion, can this tactic succeed in expelling the occupiers?
Ahmad Alderzi (AA): This tactic, in its current state, does not fall short of the level of messages directed to the United States to intervene with its force to bring about a ceasefire in Palestine, considering that it is primarily responsible for this war in actual terms. And such operations, despite their intensity, did not lead to a significant harm to the Americans. The second thing here is to ensure that there is the least amount of bloodshed between the Americans, relying on patience by putting pressure on them and let them make the decision to leave Syria and Iraq, but I do not believe that this level of action will push the Americans to end their occupation and presence in these two countries, and more committed to staying , in order to prevent stability in the region, which does not prevent the success of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, the Eurasian project, and the West Asia Axis project, which is led by Tehran.
5. SS: Israel is waging a war on civilians in Gaza. How do you see the Syrian position on this conflict?
Ahmad Alderzi (AA): Despite of the silence of Syrians at the official level, the official media outlets express the general official Syrian position, although there is a cold relationship with Hamas movement after the reconciliation between the two parties, and anticipation prevails in general, with the realization that this war will lead to a new reality for maps of the region. Because there is a real break in the static that has prevailed in the region for decades, especially since the start of the so-called “Arab Spring”. And this will naturally put Damascus in a position of waiting to pick the fruits of the Palestinian victory, which It will be a victory for the entire West Asian axis.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning author.
