According to The Wall Street Journal, US President Joe Biden is unlikely to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before the upcoming election, despite months of negotiation efforts. American officials revealed that the chance of reaching a deal soon appears slim, contradicting previous optimism from the administration.
US Mediation Efforts
The US, alongside mediators from Qatar and Egypt, has been pushing for an agreement that would see Hamas release Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. This would also involve Israel halting its military operations in Gaza. Despite these efforts, both sides have blamed each other for derailing ceasefire proposals.
Israeli Political Pressure
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from hardline members of his coalition not to leave Gaza until Hamas’ command structure is fully dismantled. As a result, negotiations have been complicated, with neither party able to find common ground.
Obstacles to the Deal
An anonymous US official told The Wall Street Journal that “no deal is imminent,” casting doubt on whether a resolution can be reached. The situation worsened with recent developments, including Hamas allegedly executing six hostages and Israel reportedly using exploding pagers against Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. According to Arab officials, these actions have further reduced the chances of a ceasefire before the US election.
Biden’s Pledge and Optimism
Biden has repeatedly promised to broker a ceasefire, particularly under pressure from pro-Palestinian factions within his party. In August, he stated that his administration was “closer than ever” to achieving an agreement. Other members of the Biden administration, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have echoed this optimism, claiming that more than 90% of a potential deal was agreed upon.
Conflicting Signals from Israel
While a senior Israeli official recently suggested that West Jerusalem might offer safe passage for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in exchange for the release of all hostages and disarmament, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant later denied hearing about such a plan. Analysts remain skeptical that Hamas would accept such terms.
Timeline of the Conflict
The conflict began in October when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing approximately 1,100 people and taking 250 hostages. In response, Israel declared war and imposed a near-total siege on Gaza. After nearly a year of intense bombings and ground operations, over 40,000 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza health ministry.
In November, Hamas released 105 hostages as part of a previous ceasefire agreement, but the status of the remaining captives remains uncertain.
