Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
On February 6, US President Trump’s deputy special envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, met with newly-elected President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Lebanon.
The US delivered a strong and clear message that Trump will not tolerate influence of Hezbollah and its ally Amal over the formation of a new government.
Salam was tasked more than three weeks ago with forming a government. Salam had allowed them to nominate four out of five Shi’ite ministers in his new cabinet, including the key role of finance minister. But, the US visit has put the process on hold, because the US wants to ensure that Hezbollah and Amal have no part in the new government.
“There was a war and Hezbollah was defeated and they need to remain defeated,” an US official told Reuters. “You don’t want somebody corrupt. It’s a new day for Lebanon. Hezbollah was defeated, and the new government needs to match that new reality.”
Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia, was severely degraded in an Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2024. A fragile ceasefire is currently in place.
“If Lebanon is to become a country that is not rife with corruption, that embraces reform and is looking to move ahead as a sovereign state, then Nawaf Salam is not going to be able to appoint Hezbollah or Amal,” added David Schenker, who is now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank.
Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple Hezbollah-linked sites deep inside Lebanon on February 6, including the eastern city of Baalbek and flew over the capital Beirut and its suburbs, marking new violations of the ceasefire.
Julie Kozack, an IMF spokesperson, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is looking forward to working with Lebanon and its people to overcome their current crisis, but added that the challenges ahead are exceptionally large. The financial crisis in Lebanon was called the world’s worst in the last 100 years.
On February 4, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that Doha would help rebuild Lebanon after the Hezbollah-Israel war, but only if a new government is formed.
Lebanon has been devastated by a nearly five-year economic meltdown. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud said last month the kingdom needs to “see real action and real reform” in Lebanon for Saudi funds to come.
The EU pledged a $63 million support package last month to aid Lebanon’s military, marking the third assistance measure under the European Peace Facility for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
The funding is expected to provide resources, training, and logistical support for LAF to allow them to redeploy, secure, and maintain stability in the country’s South of Litani sector.
The EU said the Lebanese military, along with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), are tasked with establishing the security conditions for people on both sides of the border.
“The LAF is essential to regional and domestic stability, and deserve all our support in performing their critical mission,” said Kaja Kallas, EU high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Because the LAF has been historically so weak, underfunded and ill equipped, strong and experienced Hezbollah provided Lebanon with a force capable of defending the border against Israeli invasion and occupation. It was Hezbollah who liberated the south after 20 years of brutal Israeli occupation.
Hezbollah has been seen by Lebanese of various religious sects as defenders of the security of Lebanon. However, corruption and excesses of most of the Lebanese political groups have led to decreasing public support. Many Lebanese have felt Hezbollah should not have supported and defended the Palestinians of Gaza while Israel has killed about 47,000 people there since October 7, 2023.
Unemployment and poverty have reached exceptionally high levels and the delivery of critical public services such as water and electricity have been disrupted.
Lebanon is burdened with hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees per capita in the world, amidst dwindling resources.
The IMF saw some progress on monetary and fiscal reforms, including the implementation of a tight fiscal policy and plans to unify exchange rates.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Leila Nicolas, a Professor of International Affairs and International Law at the Lebanese University and the Lebanese Army. She is also a writer and commentator on several media outlets about global affairs and MENA issues. Her Latest book, “Global and regional strategies in the Middle East: In pursuit of Hegemony” (Routledge, 2025).
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): Lebanon has just elected a president and a prime minister after more than two years without a president. In your opinion, would this have happened without foreign intervention?
Leila Nicolas (LN): Absolutely not. It has been two years since President Michel Aoun left office, and the Lebanese parliament had not elected a new president despite many attempts. Pressure from the US, France, and Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the recent elections. The political deadlock might have persisted without this external influence, given the deep-seated sectarian divisions and the vested interests of various factions.
2. SS: Israel is breaking the ceasefire every day while the Lebanese government and the international community stays silent. In your opinion, can President Aoun put an end to this, or is the war going to start again?
LN: President Aoun’s ability to influence Israel’s actions is limited. While he can call for international support and pressure, the ultimate decision lies with Israel’s interests and Trump’s decision to call for a complete withdrawal and application of the ceasefire agreement.
3. SS: Lebanon is going through a serious economic crisis. In your point of view, do you see the World Bank and the Arab oil-rich countries helping Lebanon in this crisis?
LN: Lebanon’s economic recovery and reconstruction will rely on ongoing and coordinated support from the Arab Gulf states. The decision to assist Lebanon is influenced by political factors, particularly the position of the United States. For the US to provide its approval for such support, it will require the disarmament of Hezbollah and a reduction of the group’s influence in Lebanon’s political landscape.
4. SS: Mainstream media, and the pro-US politicians in Lebanon, are claiming that Hezbollah has lost the war, and is defeated. In your opinion, how should Hezbollah and its allies respond to these accusations?
LN: Hezbollah suffered severe losses, yet it was not defeated. Its resilience, the continued support it receives from its base and its political share in the Lebanese parliament make it the most powerful party in Lebanon to date.
5. SS: The Lebanese parliament election is coming up in 2026. In your opinion, will the war affect the results?
LN: The war has already altered the political landscape, leading to the end of political stalemate and the election of President General Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam as the Prime minister-designate. The electorate’s shifting allegiances remain uncertain. Key factors such as reconstruction efforts, economic stability, and the current leaders’ performance in managing the crisis will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes of future elections.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist
