Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
On March 3, the American Embassy in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, was hit by a drone, not fired from Iran, but fired from Iraq.
Previously, Iraqi militias aligned with Iran had claimed 16 operations using military drones aimed at hitting enemy targets both inside Iraq and beyond.
These Iraqi militias follow hardline positions against American allies in the Middle East.
The Iraqi militias are standing with their ally Iran, after the unprovoked February 28 attack by the US and Israel on Iran that resulted in the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in addition to several other top Iranian officials.
On February 3, multiple armed drones were aimed at the US Consulate General and the US-led coalition base at Erbil International Airport in northern Iraq. US-operated air defense systems intercepted them with resulting loud explosions heard in the area.
There were no reported casualties among the US-coalition troops stationed there.
Erbil has faced almost constant drone and missile threats from the Iraqi Shiite militias since the beginning of the war.
Prior to the war, the militias had been in discussions to disarm; however, they said they would surrender their weapons only once Iraq achieves full sovereignty, including the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq.
Pro-Iran militias are drawing Iraq into a regional war, which severely complicates the plans in Washington. It is questionable whether the US can wage war on two battlefronts at the same time.
Some analysts ponder if Washington miscalculated on the consequences of attacking and assassinating the Supreme Leader of Iran, who is revered by Shiites globally, not only in Iran.
Iraq is populated primarily by Shiite Muslims, along with a Sunni minority.
The militias have already conducted funerals for their members killed on March 2 after being targeted on the Syrian border.
For the Iraqi government in Baghdad, this is a test of sovereignty and stability. Baghdad does not want to be an open battlefield, and does not want to slip into civil war while trying to disarm the militias.
Iraq has a very long border with Iran, is hosting US military personnel, and has a population which has strong sympathies with Iran.
Iraq is a major oil producer and a transit corridor in the region, which highlights the potential economic impact Iraq is facing from this war.
Currently, Iraq has numerous Shiite militias backed by Iran. The Popular Mobilization Forces (Hasg al-Shaabi) are a state-sanctioned umbrella organization, officially under the Iraqi Prime Minister. However, the groups answer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The groups are varied, with some acting as a major political and paramilitary force, and many frequently conduct attacks against US interests. Some hold positions in the Iraqi government and security apparatus.
On March 1, US President Trump spoke by phone with Kurdish leaders in Iraq seeking to enlist their aid in the war on Iran.
Iraq’s Kurds have close ties to Iran’s Kurdish minority. Iraq’s Kurds have thousands of armed soldiers along the Iran-Iraq border and their numbers, arms and locations could play a major war as the war continues.
On March 3, Iranian drones targeted a camp in Erbil known to have housed members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and their families, injuring at least one KDPI member.
A weapons and ammunition depot was hit which resulted in explosions.
On March 1, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning to Kurdish separatists that mobilization would end in their complete destruction.
Kurdish opposition groups came under attack in Sulaimani and Erbil, with most drones and missile intercepted prior.
On March 28, The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) announced that its forces had fought with the IRGC in western Iran’s (Rojhelat) Kermanshah province.
On February 22, five Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups announced their alliance, and vowed to bring down the Islamic Republic and establish a Kurdish entity.
These Iranian-Kurdish opposition parties are mainly based in the north of Iraq, and have come been a source of security concerns for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.
In 2023, Iraq and Iran signed a security agreement under which Baghdad pledged to disarm and relocate these groups from border areas, following repeated warnings from Tehran.
The CIA is arming the Kurdish forces in Iraq, both the Iraqi and the Iranian-Kurdish groups, seeking to support a popular uprising in Iran.
Some analysts question whether a minority, like the Kurds, could bring about regime change is a very large country like Iran.
The Trump administration may face backlash from Turkey, a US ally and host of a US airbase, because Turkey sees Kurdish separatism and homeland aspirations as a security threat in Turkey, which has a large Kurdish community.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been striking Kurdish groups and said on Tuesday that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones.
On March 3, Trump spoke with the president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), Mustafa Hijri.
Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to take part in a ground operation in Western Iran, and the militias expect US and Israeli support.
On March 1, Trump called Iraqi Kurdish leaders to discuss the US military operation in Iran and how the US and the Kurds could work together for regime change.
The plan is use Iraqi Kurdistan as the launching ground and weapons transit route for the Iranian-Kurdish groups.
Experts on Iran caution that the Iranian people are largely unarmed, and a regime change scenario would be impossible unless the security services collapse.
The potential for Kurdish armed groups to fight Iran from Iraq undermines Iraqi sovereignty.
Recently, Israel has been hitting Iranian targets along the Iraqi border with the aim of helping the Kurdish forces to engage Iranian military and police.
The Kurdish people are an ethnic minority group without an official state. Today, there are an estimated 25-30 million Kurds, the majority living in a region that stretches across parts of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Armenia. Most Kurds are Sunni Muslims, but the Kurdish population has diverse cultural, social, religious and political traditions as well as a variety of dialects.
The CIA has a long history of working with Iraqi Kurdish factions. The agency currently has an outpost in Iraqi Kurdistan located near the border with Iran. The US has a consulate in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, and US and coalition troops are based there.
Kurds had envisioned that in exchange for working with US forces, the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq would win its independence; however, that never happened.
Earlier this year, the new US-aligned Syrian government launched a swift military campaign to consolidate control and pushed out the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
On February 23, the US began withdrawing from northeastern Syria and redeploying its forces to Erbil in northern Iraq.
The largest US base in Syria was emptied as all soldiers and equipment was moved to semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq.
US forces had already withdrawn from two other bases in Syria, al-Tanf in the southeast and Shaddadi in the northeast.
The US had been reducing its military stationed in Syria for months, going from 1,500 personnel in July to about 900 before leaving entirely.
The SDF had been Washington’s main Syrian ally in the fight against ISIL (ISIS). After Trump built US ties with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the SDF were sidelined.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) was established as an autonomous entity in 1992 following the 1991 US Gulf War on Iraq, under President George Bush, Sr.
In January 2019, the number of U.S. troops in Iraq was approximately 5,000. In early 2020 the Iraqi parliament voted to oust all remaining US troops and the Iraqi Prime Minister told the US to start working on troop withdrawal.
In January 2020, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on US forces at al-Asad base in Iraq in retaliation for a drone strike at a Baghdad airport that killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was assassinated on orders of Trump.
In January 2026, the Iraqi Defense Ministry said the Iraqi army had taken full control of al-Asad Airbase.
On January 19, Iraq’s government said that US forces have completed a full withdrawal from military facilities within the country’s federal territory, which excludes the semiautonomous Kurdistan region where US troops remain.
The final contingent of US advisers had left al-Asad Air Base, which hosted US troops for more than two decades.
US forces remain at Harir Air Base in Erbil province in the Kurdistan region. Iraq’s central government does not fully control the Kurdish region in northern Iraq, which has its own government, parliament and security forces, as recognized by the Iraqi constitution.
In 2003, the US military attacked, destroyed and occupied Iraq. According to the US Defense Department, 4,418 American service members died in Iraq between 2003 and 2012, including 3,481 killed in hostile action. An additional 31,994 were wounded during the same period.
Since the June 2025 12-day war, Tehran has intensified missile and drone production while diversifying launch locations.
Perhaps the military planners have not given enough consideration as to the importance of Iraq in the US-Israeli war on Iran. The choice between assisting the US in attacking Iran, or assisting Iran in its self-defense is a difficult choice for many in Iraq.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
