Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular two-term Mayor of Istanbul, was arrested at his home today on charges of terrorism and corruption.
The former businessman turned politician and major opposition figure has beaten President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the opinion polls, suggesting the Mayor could be the next president.
Imamoglu was to be nominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) on Sunday as their presidential candidate in the 2028 race. Critics of Erdogan had been hoping for an early election. CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel told the media the meeting would go ahead as planned, and added that Imamoglu’s detention was “an attempted coup against our next president.”
Erdogan has led Turkey as prime minister or president for more than 20 years and is now the longest-serving leader in the Turkish republic’s history, and has expressed his desire to win in 2028.
The police arrived at Imamoglu’s home before dawn, and the arrest was made at 7:30. In a voice message shared by his office, Imamoglu said: “Hundreds of police are at my door…This immoral and tyrannical approach will undoubtedly be overturned by the will and resilience of our people.”
Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office has accused Imamoglu of “being the leader of a criminal organization, being a member of a criminal organization, extortion, bribery, aggravated fraud, the unlawful obtaining of personal data, tender-rigging crimes” and “the crime of aiding a terrorist organization”.
In January, Imamoglu was questioned in an Istanbul court as part of an open investigation of his criticism of the city’s public prosecutor. Upon leaving, Imamoglu said he felt harassed.
In response to his arrest today, the Istanbul Governor’s Office closed several roads around Istanbul and banned demonstrations for four days to prevent protests. The internet-access advocacy group netblocks.org reported today that access was restricted in Turkey to popular social media platforms, including X, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Telegram, and Signal.
Imamogul wrote on his official X account today, “The will of the people cannot be silenced through intimidation or unlawful acts. I stand resolute, entrusting myself not only to the 16 million residents of Istanbul but to the 86 million citizens of Türkiye and all who uphold democracy and justice worldwide. I stand firm in my fight for the fundamental rights and freedoms.”
106 other people were arrested in a government crackdown on opposition and dissent. The list of detainees also includes journalists, local politicians, businesspeople, and municipal administrators.
Critics say the crackdown follows significant losses by Erdogan’s ruling AKP in local elections last year.
Yesterday, Istanbul University annulled Imamoglu’s degree, which would prevent him from running for president, as a higher education degree is a prerequisite.
The University alleges his 1990 transfer from a Turkish Cypriot University to the Faculty of Business Administration at Istanbul University was irregular.
“In 1990, I followed the transfer procedure and applied (for transfer to Istanbul University,” the mayor said in his statement to prosecutors on March 5
Imamoglu said the University’s actions were “unlawful” and promised to fight the decision in court. University administrators are bound by regulations on who can be admitted to study based on past educational credentials and could not have enrolled Imamoglu unless his transfer was legally binding.
“The days when those who made this decision will be held accountable before history and justice are near. The march of our nation, thirsty for justice, law, and democracy, cannot be stopped,” Imamoglu said of the University’s action and added, “We are facing great tyranny, but I want you to know that I will not be discouraged,” in a video post on social media.
Imamoglu is also suspected of aiding the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) by allegedly allying with a Kurdish umbrella organization for the Istanbul municipal elections.
In 2022, Imamoglu was sentenced to two years and seven months in jail and banned from political activities for “insulting” members of Turkiye’s High Election Council, a sentence that Imamoglu has appealed.
Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in March 2019 in a historic blow to Erdogan and the AKP, which had controlled Istanbul for a quarter-century. The AKP pushed to void the municipal election results in the city of 16 million, alleging irregularities.
Imamoglu won the second election held a few months later, and the mayor retained his seat following local elections last year, during which his party made significant gains against Erdogan’s AKP.
The Turkish markets and economy reacted significantly to the arrest of Imamoglu. The Istanbul Stock Exchange’s main index dropped by 7%, triggering a temporary halt to trading to prevent panic selling and to stabilize the market.
The Turkish lira lost more than 10% of its value against the US dollar and the euro, which was a record low of more than 42 versus the greenback, though later it was trading down 6.2% at 38.95.
Investors are mainly Turkish locals and are affected by political upheavals. The declines were the worst in the world among respective asset classes.
Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian stance and detention of his biggest rival caused investors to sell Turkish assets as fears of political instability grew.
Experts have said the market’s reaction to the arrest was a deadly blow to the Turkish central bank’s fight against inflation as the lower lira raises import prices.
Last month, inflation was down, interest-rate cuts, and hopes of closer ties with the EU had pushed Turkish stocks into a bull market earlier this month, while the lira carry trade was still viewed as attractive.
Investors see that Erdogan intends to tighten his grip on power by preventing his biggest political rival from running in presidential elections due in 2028. Experts suggest that serious investors in Turkey may see Imamoglu as potentially better for business, whereas Erdogan has made repeated economic decisions that ended in disaster.
Erdogan may be willing to allow the Turkish economy to suffer, as long as his future seat in office is secure. Economists point to a weakening of state institutions and the rule of law, which suggests politics are placed above economic prosperity.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
