Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The truce between Iran and Israel is just hours old, and already on shaky grounds. Israel Katz, Defense Minister of Israel, ordered “intense strikes” on the Iranian capital, Tehran, after accusing Iran of violating a truce brokered by the United States and Qatar.
Iran denied the claim and warned its Iranian security forces to stand ready to respond to any Israeli violations of the ceasefire. The military in Iran has denied launching any missiles at Israel past the official ceasefire agreement, according to Iranian official media reports.
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has been violated repeatedly by Israel, according to the UN and the Lebanese government. Israel has a long history of violating international agreements and international law, such as the case of committing genocide in Gaza and preventing starving people from readily available food.
Experts warn that Israel may not respect the ceasefire because it was seemingly imposed upon them by U.S. President Donald Trump, who sees himself as a peacemaker. Trump dubbed the conflict “the 12-day war” and hailed the ceasefire as the chance for “peace and harmony” to return to the Middle East.
Experts and historians recall that the Middle East was not in peace, or harmony, before this recent military conflict between Iran and Israel. Most will point to the never-ending conflict created by the occupation of Palestine, and the Israeli denial of even the basic human rights to Palestinians in Gaza and the Occupied West Bank.
Iran has made the political ideology of resistance to the occupation part of their fundamental policy. While the cause of ending the occupation is noble, some Iranian citizens feel the time has come to concentrate on domestic issues, and the nuclear program has been used against the Iranian people by Israel to thwart their prosperity and progress. While most of the Iranian people stand with their government while under attack, there is a sizeable segment of the population that would like to see a policy change that could normalize their relations with the U.S. and the West.
Trump made the ceasefire announcement on June 23, and the deal was set to take effect at 4:00 a.m. Tehran time. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “We have no intention to continue our response afterward.”
Araghchi cautioned the Iranian side would respect the Trump=brokered ceasefire as long as Israel abided as well.
The deal was accepted by Israel after “achieving the objectives” of its unprovoked attack on Iran. But, just two hours later, Katz was crying foul, and threatening a response.
Before the ceasefire, Iran had launched missiles at the US military base, Al Udeid, in Qatar. This was an orchestrated reply to the U.S. attack on Fodo, Isfahan, and Natanz. All the missiles were intercepted, and there were no casualties or damage. The American personnel had been moved ahead of time in a coordinated plan, with Iran warning the Qataris before launch.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the missile attack on the Al Udeid base was a legitimate response under Article 51 of the UN Charter because the U.S. attack on Iran was unprovoked.
“Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered,” Trump posted on his social media site.
For days, the world sat on the edges of their seats, wondering if or when would Trump decide to bomb the nuclear facilities in Iran. Finally, in the early hours of June 22, operation ‘Midnight Hammer’ was launched by Trump. The mission involved 125 U.S. military aircraft and targeted three nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Seven B-2 stealth bombers, unable to be detected by air defenses, flew into Iran and hit the nuclear sites. The mission included two dozen cruise missiles launched at the Isfahan site from a submarine, with 75 “precision-guided weapons” in total used during the operation.
At Fordo, Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) were dropped on the nuclear enrichment facility buried deep below a mountain outside Tehran, which is the key to Iran’s nuclear program. The bomb can penetrate 61m (200ft) underground before exploding.
The GBU-57 is exclusively owned by the U.S., and it is the only weapon that could have penetrated so deep at Fordo. This was the reason Trump had to decide on whether the U.S. would be a partner with Israel in destroying Fordo.
According to Iranian official media, the three sites hit had been evacuated prior and did not suffer a major loss of materials.
The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, has said the country is evaluating the damage inflicted on its nuclear program and planning to restore it.
Radiation levels after the attack did not appear to be increased, according to Saudi Arabia and the UN’s nuclear watchdog.
Netanyahu and Trump both hinted at regime change as one of the goals of the attack on Iran. However, the experts say regime change is almost impossible in Iran. Many countries in the Middle East are run by a dictator, who is a one-man-show. Take the man out, and his regime collapses. On December 8, 2024, President Assad of Syria fled, and within minutes the regime and government fell to pieces. But, Iran is not similar. If the Supreme Leader were to be removed by natural causes, or by assassination, the government would continue as it has well-developed institutions and procedures.
For 33 years, Netanyahu has been crying wolf, warning of an imminent threat of Iran having a nuclear bomb. He began his mantra in 1992, and over the years has patiently kept it up, usually saying the threat is two weeks away. Recently, we heard Trump in a press conference repeat the Netanyahu mantra of ‘two weeks’. Famously, Netanyahu held up a cartoon poster of a bomb at the UN General Assembly.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, told CNN on June 17, “We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.”
Trump trusts Netanyahu for information more than the expert Grossi.
Netanyahu has threatened Iran for years concerning their development of ballistic missiles. In the 12-day war, Israel has focused many strikes on ballistic missile sites. The ballistic missiles made in Iran had been the backbone of the weaponry stockpiled by Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, after the Israeli war on Hezbollah, their leadership and weapons stockpiles have been seriously depleted.
Netanyahu’s war sent the Israeli people into shelters, but still, there were deaths and injuries from the Iranian response. The Israeli hostages are still in Gaza and hostage families feel they have been forgotten by their government.
Domestic Israeli opinion is split between support of Bibi and against Bibi, wanting the war in Gaza to end, and hostages to come home. Israeli experts surmise Netanyahu waged the war with Iran to save his political career.
Trump stated his goal was to make a deal with Iran that would eliminate the possibility of them having a nuclear bomb.
Steve Witkoff had been meeting Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi regularly and was scheduled to meet on June 15, when Netanyahu launched his surprise and unprovoked attack on June 13.
Experts and historians recalled the US attack on Iraq for regime change, which was unprovoked, and based on a fantasy about WMD, which were later confessed as lies by General Colin Powell.
Grossi has welcomed news of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and has written to Araghchi, urging resumed cooperation between the IAEA and Iran.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
