Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
On October 1, Iran fired 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, an Iranian General, and Hassan Nasrallah. According to the Jerusalem Post today, the Israel Defense Force reported that Israeli army bases were damaged in the attack.The region has now inched closer to a full-scale war not seen in the last 50 years.
There are options for Iran should Israel decide to strike back in retaliation.The Middle East may be facing two different possible scenarios following the Iranian attack on Israel. The first possible scenario would envision the US and its European allies pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from taking steps that will plunge the region into a full-scale war.In pressuring Netanyahu, the various leaders would discuss the adverse effects on the global economy, such as the increased oil, gas, shipping, and supply chain costs.The global economy is facing recessions and inflations which would only be acerbated by a regional war.
In the US, the economy is such a sensitive topic that it has become the primary point of contention in the upcoming presidential election in November.The US economy cannot afford a regional war in the Middle East, and the US assets in the region would be vulnerable. In an all-out war, Iran and its allies would target US assets in the Arab Gulf.The US assets across the Middle East include oil, shipping, gas, banking, finance, stocks and real estate.
The biggest loser in a Middle East war might be the US.Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Iraq all have US military personnel and equipment. In a regional war, missiles would most likely target all the US army positions. The loss of American soldiers in a preventable Middle East war would be devastating to American families.In the second possible scenario, and my opinion more probable, Netanyahu would refuse to listen to the advice and pleadings of the US and its allies and instead decide to attack Iran, which would mark the opening of a regional war.Netanyahu knows that the US government, on behalf of the US taxpayer, will pay for any war Israel decides to embark upon.
So far, the US has sent billions in cash and weaponry to Israel to carry out their ongoing genocide in Gaza, and now they have opened a second front in Lebanon.Netanyahu, and his extremist coalition partners keeping him in power, have crossed all redlines and bulldozed through all barriers against the ‘Axis of Resistance’, that were in place following the 2006 war in Lebanon. That previous war lasted 33 days and Hezbollah won the match by preventing Israel from achieving their stated military goals.
Bombing Beirut, and assassinating Haniyeh in Tehran, and Nasrallah in Beirut marked the tipping point for Iran and precipitated the decision to attack Israel on October 1.Sky News has reported their Israeli sources have confirmed tens of Israeli soldiers have been killed or injured on October 2 as they attempted to enter into Lebanese territory in the south. Hezbollah fighters had laid booby traps which prevented the Israeli troops from advancing even one meter.Should Netanyahu decide to attack Iran, and the US participates in support of Israel, the Houthis of Yemen would begin their attack, as would the Iraqi Army divisions who fought ISIS in the past, along with Hamas and Hezbollah, and with Syria entering the conflict as well.
The actions taken by Iran and Hezbollah will draw new redlines in the Israeli-Middle East war.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
this article is originally published at Times of India
