Syria’s Transitional Phase: Between Washington’s Conditions and Ankara’s Aspirations
International efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis are intensifying with a U.S. delegation visiting Damascus, coinciding with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s anticipated trip to the city. While Washington seeks to achieve a stable political transition, Ankara is attempting to bolster its influence as a key player in Syrian affairs.
Clear American Demands
The American delegation, led by Barbara Leaf, met with leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including Abu Muhammad al-Joulani. During the meeting, Washington emphasized the necessity of adhering to the outcomes of the Aqaba meetings in Jordan, which called for national dialogue and support for a peaceful, inclusive political transition, alongside combating terrorism, according to Tom Harb, Director of the Middle East Democracy Alliance.
Harb said in an interview with Radar on Sky News Arabia, “The United States places its security interests and Israel’s security as priorities in any future arrangements for Syria.”
Turkish Ambitions
On the other hand, political writer and researcher Ali Asmar asserts that Turkey plays a central role in shaping Syria’s new future.
Speaking on Radar on Sky News Arabia, Asmar stated, “Turkey wants to be a strategic partner for the new Syria, not just a supporter of a particular faction.”
He added that Turkish efforts aim to lift international sanctions on Syria, thereby facilitating reconstruction and the return of refugees. However, Syrian journalist Ghassan Ibrahim sees Turkey exploiting Syria’s weakened state to advance its interests.
Ibrahim commented, “Turkey’s influence in Syria has gone beyond cooperation to become clear dominance. Many Turkey-backed armed factions impose Ankara’s interests on the Syrian scene.”
He further noted that Turkey seeks to reshape Hayat Tahrir al-Sham within the structures of the Syrian state.
American Reservations and Concerns for the Future
Despite removing the bounty on Joulani, Washington remains hesitant to give him a significant role in the transitional phase.
Tom Harb stated, “Not taking a photo with Joulani during the meeting sends a clear message that Washington still considers Hayat Tahrir al-Sham a terrorist organization.”
Experts agree that achieving a comprehensive political transition requires navigating both Turkish and Iranian influence in Syria. Ibrahim believes forming a transitional council representing all Syrian political sides is the best solution. He said, “Embarrassing Turkey and involving Syrian parties in inclusive dialogue can lead to a sustainable solution.”
As security and political challenges persist, it’s evident that Syria’s transitional phase depends on the agreement of regional and international players, with ongoing discussions about the identity of the new ruler and the nature of the future Syrian state.
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