Steven Sahiounie, Journalist and political commentator
We are just days away from the inauguration of President Donald Trump. He has made many promises to reverse the course of American foreign policy from the past four years under the President Joe Biden administration.
The war in Ukraine is seen by many analysts as the “Biden War”, similar to the “Obama War” in Libya and Syria, the “Bush War” in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the “Clinton War” in Yugoslavia.
Trump says he will end the “Biden War” in Ukraine before the last Ukrainian blood is spilt in a rivalry between the US and Russia.
Biden has another war under his belt, the “Gaza War”, in which he singlehandedly funded and defended Israel, even after the Israel was labeled an Apartheid State and confirmed to have been committing Genocide against the Palestinian people. The international community have branded Israel a “rogue actor” which has left Israel isolated on the world stage, and has diminished the reputation of the US. Now, when the US threatens Russia and China over human rights issues, the world laughs out loud.
Biden has provoked China by a flagrant Taiwan policy seen as provocative. Trump’s future policy towards China may be to decrease tensions with China, and to keep South East Asian shipping routes safe and open to all.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Ray Hanania, an American veteran, “The Ray Hanania Show” on Arabnews.com/RayRadioShow, for his expert opinion from Chicago. IL.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): President Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine for many reasons. In your opinion, will he be successful and will the ‘deep state’ allow him to stop the war?
Ray Hanania (RH): I am not confident that Trump can stop the Russian war against Ukraine without surrendering Ukrainian land to the Russian invaders. I don’t believe the “Deep State” will be the obstacle, but rather blocking an easy solution will be American public opinion and the inability to trust the word of Russian dictator and ICC war criminal Vladimir Putin. I don’t believe Ukraine will accept the surrender of occupied lands taken by force by Russia without something significant like joining the NATO alliance, which is fragile and which Trump has criticized in the past.
Also, I believe that America remains politically divided and that division weakens any moves Trump takes on Ukraine (and on all of the issues listed below). Trump has control of the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House through the Republican Party, but it is a weak control, and it is unpredictable, easily influenced by a few more moderate Republicans who might disagree with Trump. To stay strong, Trump needs to keep the GOP leadership satisfied and compliant with his policies.
However, this is Trump’s last term in office and “lame duck” presidents, as they are called, can take risks without worrying about what happens in the next presidential election. He can pursue extreme policies without concern for public pushback.
#2. SS: President Trump announced several times that one of his main points of focus is on the relationship with China. In your opinion, how do you see the future of this relationship between Beijing and Washington under the Trump administration?
RH: I think China will continue to dominate the world economically and efforts to improve the economic balance will not be successful. China has many investments in the United States and has strong allies in the world. Any effort to change the relationship with China will require more than just the influence of the United States. I don’t believe China wants to disrupt the existing relationship, but they have more influence than Trump, in my opinion.
#3. SS: Reports say that President Trump might order airstrikes on Iranian nuclear projects, and increase sanctions on Iran. In your opinion, if President Trump implements his promises, would he be taking the US into a war, while he has promised to stop all wars?
RH: The United States continues to do the bidding of Israel. Iran is not a threat to the United States, but the United States continues to side with Israel in its conflict with the Arab and Muslim world. If Trump takes actions unilaterally against Iran, it could start World War III, and further weaken the already weakened leadership America has in the international community. It could destabilize the region, and further strengthen the growing influence of the new BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates).
#4. SS: President Trump had a good relationship with the oil-rich Arab countries in his first term in office. In your opinion, what will that relationship look like in the near future?
RH: America’s funding and arming of Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, and now Syria, has raised the anger of the Arab world populations and many Arab governments are being cautious in how they move forward with America, which is heavily influenced by Israel. The Arab world would like to continue its engagement with the United States, but it is also building political and economic relations with other countries including those who are in conflict with the United States like Russia, China, and BRICS.
#5. SS: In your opinion, will President Trump pressure the Arab countries to sign the Abraham Accords, and normalize their relations with Israel?
RH: Trump will definitely try to revive the Abraham Accords which created a situation of “detente” between Israel and some Arab countries, but not a strong peace. Israel’s brutality against Islamic sites in Gaza and the West Bank have riled populations in the Middle East and Arab countries will have to carefully balance any attempts to solidify Israel’s influence in their countries against public anger with Israel’s government policies. Until Israel ends the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, it is unlikely anything of substance will be achieved between any additional Arab countries and Israel through the Abraham Accords, although there will be a lot of bluster and hyperbole. Many people in the Arab World wonder what benefits their countries really have received by inking peace accords with Israel, considering that Israel is the biggest warmonger in the Middle East, and can strike any country any time it wants without concern for consequences. Without some significant balance towards peace in the Arab world that includes Palestine, it will be difficult to sell the Abraham Accords as anything more than one-sided contract that only benefits Israel, which has tremendous influence over American politics.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist
