Monitoring an Asteroid That Could Potentially Collide with Earth… Determining the Time of Danger
Observations have indicated that there is a 1.2% chance of an asteroid recently discovered, named 2024
YR4, colliding with Earth in the year 2032, according to a statement released on Wednesday by the
European Space Agency (ESA). The agency has affirmed its commitment to enhancing its predictions
regarding this potential event.
Discovered in December of the previous year using a warning telescope in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4,
which measures between 40 and 100 meters in size, could potentially strike Earth on December 22,
2032, as per automated warning systems.
The ESA clarified that:
“an asteroid of this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause significant
damage to a local region.” They also noted that the current impact probability stands at 1.2%, which
aligns with calculations from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is classified at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a system
designed by NASA that ranges from zero to ten. This classification demands “attention by astronomers,”
with the likelihood that “new telescopic observations will lead to reclassification to Level 0” in terms of
risk.
The ESA explained that “the impact probability initially rises before quickly declining to zero with
additional observations.” They further stressed their role within the International Asteroid Warning
Network (IAWN), where they will coordinate future observations to better assess the collision risks,
utilizing the Very Large Telescope of the European Southern Observatory in Chile.
This ongoing monitoring and data gathering are crucial steps in planetary defense, ensuring that if the
risk escalates, appropriate measures can be taken to safeguard Earth from potential asteroid impacts.
The focus now is on refining the trajectory data to better understand and mitigate this cosmic threat.