Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Turkey’s primary objective in Syria is to support the leadership of President Ahmad Sharaa in establishing stability which would pave the way for sending the 3 million Syrians in Turkey back home.
The problem of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, who are no longer welcome, is a domestic problem that has caused social and civil unrest across Turkey. In the last national election, virtually all the political parties were making similar promises to the voters concerning vowing to send the Syrians packing.
Turkey also seeks to neutralize the armed militia, Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), who have been supported by the US. However, the US has hinted that they may withdraw their occupation forces, and this leaves the SDF vulnerable.
The SDF and President Sharaa have signed an agreement to merge their forces into a new Syrian military which is expected by year’s end. This would mark the end of Kurdish aggression on the Turkish border, and equally importantly, mark the end of Kurdish aspirations for an independent Kurdish state in Syria.
Some military experts have said there is a possibility of Turkey establishing an airbase in central Syria. Israel attacked and destroyed all of the military assets of the former Assad regime following his fall in December 2024. Russia has an airbase near Latakia which they are negotiating to keep. Still, the Sharaa government does not have jets presently and may be interested in the short-term in benefiting from Turkish airpower.
Turkey had been supporting the rebel-held province of Idlib from 2011 to 2024. During that period, President Sharaa had been using the name “Jolani”, and he was the leader of the armed group Jibhat al Nusra, which later changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Despite the US and UN designating Jolani and HTS as terrorists, Turkey remained supportive of the armed fighters against Assad in Idlib. Jolani formed a government in Idlib and administered the services and security of 3 million residents. A university was established, the Turkish lira was in use, and some of the schools taught in the Turkish language. International aid provides free food and medical supplies through various charities from the UN, Turkish charities, and Doctors Without Borders.
In 2010, Turkey and Syria enjoyed a very close relationship, both diplomatically and economically. Assad and Erdogan referred to each other as ‘brothers’. A Free Trade Agreement saw Syria become the number one destination for Turkish exports. Syrian stores were flooded with Turkish products at reasonable prices which hurt the sales of Syrian-made products.
During the 2010 Free Trade period, even VISA restrictions were abolished. Turkish resorts were flooded with Syrians enjoying affordable vacation venues with a level of service and cleanliness unheard of inside Syria.
But, the relationship ended after the March 2011 revolution began in Deraa. Erdogan was one of the first leaders to call for Assad to step down. The US-NATO-backed Syrian revolution continued until only Turkey was left supporting the ouster of Assad, while the other partners had backed out by 2017.
Erdogan persevered, won the war in Syria, and delivered Damascus almost without a shot fired, as Jolani, soon to be known as Sharaa, arrived with the victorious HTS.
Turkey will want to see the Syrian refugees go home, and Turkish products moving over the border once again. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has made several trips to Damascus and will continue to promote Syrian state building.
Syria was occupied by the Ottoman Empire for 400 years until the end of WW1 which defeated the Turks. Syria was occupied by France from 1918 until they fought and gained their independence in 1946.
The dictatorship of Bashar Assad lasted for 24 years, ending on December 8, 2024. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for over 20 years but is a democratically elected leader.
Modern Turkey was founded by Ataturk on secular and democratic values. Erdogan and his AKP party have differed from the Ataturk-founded CHP party. Analysts have said Erdogan and his followers are Islamists, in the style of the Muslim Brotherhood. Sharaa began with Al Qaeda in 2003 in Iraq, then to ISIS, later to Jibhat al-Nusra, and finally HTS. Sharaa and most of his newly appointed ministers are from armed Jihadist backgrounds. The Islamic extremist values are a strong tie between Erdogan and Sharaa.
The current political unrest in Turkey, which has seen millions of Turkish take to the streets, has been the result of the arrest of the CHP candidate for President, Ekrem Imamoglu. He is facing charges of corruption as the Mayor of Istanbul, and links to the PKK terrorist group. Political analysts see the arrest of Erdogan’s main rival as a political move to keep the AKP in power.
Turkey is still a democracy and Syria is not. It remains to be seen how far Turkey will move away from democracy and how close will Syria approach democracy in the future. Many in Syria are hoping the country will follow the lessons of Ataturk and embrace secular values, which would support the rights of the many minority groups in Syria.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist.
